Welcome to our Home Page!

"I sincerely hope you find this web site both interesting and valuable" -- Walter Deemer

An Audio Greeting

PLEASE NOTE: I work with (and am only allowed to work with) institutional investors.

If you are a professional money manager, but are not yet a client, you should go here first.

If you are NOT a professional money manager, you are more than welcome to visit our web site. but please -- please -- visit the Canadian Securities Administrators site for investors, "Investing And The Internet", before you proceed ANY further. Click here to go there now.(Once upon a time, the NASD had this must-reat document on their site, but they've taken it down??!!)

And if you aren't a professional money manager, I regret that I can not, by law, make my service available to you.

WHAT'S NEW

"A Way Forward" and "Unconventional Clues"

My old friend Dean LeBaron got two of us to help him write an article last December for a financial academic journal on how we got into this financial mess and, especially, to "goad discourse forward" on how to get out of it. The article proved to be too unconventional for the journal (among other things, they didn't like the fact that things like the Kondratiff Wave couldn't be described via a precise mathematical formula with lots of Greek letters in it), but you can read it here. In the meantime, Kate Welling, who writes a widely-followed and highly-regarded publication at Weeden for professional investors, picked up on it and recently interviewed the three of us. The result of that interview was a really neat (and very readable) piece in which we were much less statesmanlike (and, from Kate's prodding, were forced to venture more conclusions than the article, which was designed to "goad discourse", contained). The interview was published on January 23rd, and Kate has graciously given me permission to post the article here.

(To learn more about Welling@Weeden -- a must-read for every investment professional -- go here.)

"The Real Deal"

When we submitted "A Way Forward" to the scholarly journals they critized us, in their rejection letters, for using the Dow/gold ratio as an equity deflator rather than the CPI. Mark Ungewitter, with help from Dean LeBaron and minimal help from me, superbly defended our use of the Dow/gold ratio and expanded our analysis of it in a November 2009 article "The Real Deal". You can read it here.

Talk to us: Walter, Mark and Dean

"A Way Forward" was written in November and continues to enjoy a steady, appreciative (usually) circulation. Readers are groping, as we are, for answers in a new era. We might have provided some guidance. And in that spirit we have opened a forum where you can speak to us, where we can speak about our latest thinking and together we'll come to better answers than we have today.

Forums are difficult to generate. Most of us do not participate since they seem impersonal. But this is one we can promise is anything but. The visitors to our sites are generally known to us, usually students of markets and are fully conditioned to top class work, theirs and others. Collectively we might uncover some relationships that will assist us in this murky time.

That was the goal of "A Way Forward" -- to stimulate thinking...ours and yours. We thank you for participating with us.

-- Walter, Mark, Dean

ENTER THE "A WAY FORWARD" FORUM

We've added two new "indicator explanation" reports, one on ISI's Hedge Fund Survey (the best sentiment indicator at the present time) and one on Bull Market Extensions, to our Reference Material section under the Charts-Links button (below).

SOME PAST INTERVIEWS

My thoughts at various points in time -- as recorded by unbiased journalists.

The November 10th, 2006 Talouselama Interview

I was interviewed along with Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and Jeremey Siegel. You can read the interview here.

(Too bad it's in Finnish...)

The February 28th, 2005 Barron's Interview And Charts

You can read my February 28th, 2005 Barron's interview, "The Prince Of Tides", here (subscription to Barron's Online required).

I treasure the introduction:

"It is his custom to blush, not boast. And he is as preoccupied with the health of his orange and grapefruit trees as he is with the state of the stock market. A sensitive man, indeed, is Walter Deemer. For 40-some odd years, this master of the delicate art of studying stock-market cycles has applied himself with singular devotion to understanding the secrets contained in such things as Fidelity sector funds, the relative-strength of various industry sectors as well as the habits of a certain species of speculator all in pursuit of the best possible strategies to position institutional portfolios. Deemer is now following his lifelong pursuit from his riverfront home in Port St. Lucie, Fla., where he is his own boss at DTR Inc., sending his daily updates and special memorandums via e-mail to fans made loyal by his ability to get them in and out of the market at critical market junctures.

It is a talent he has demonstrated year after year and decade after decade from the time he was an apprentice to Bob Farrell at Merrill Lynch in the early Sixties, through his time with Gerry Tsai at the Manhattan Fund in the late Sixties, through his tenure as head of market analysis at Putnam Investments during its heyday in the Seventies. For his sense of things now, please be our guest."

-- Sandara Ward

The February 23rd, 2004 Barron's Interview And Charts

You can read my February 23rd, 2004 Barron's interview here (subscription to Barron's Online required).

The explanatory material for the charts in the article can be found here (under the "Reference Material" heading).

And Ian McAvity's "Busted Bubbles" chart is here.

Finally, the McDonald's chart from the 'Seventies and early 'Eighties is here.

BLOWING MY OWN HORN

I got the following absolutely unsolicited comment from a client just this month (April 2008). I don't usually mention things like this ("It is his custom to blush, not boast"), but decided to make an exception this time.

          "A word of appreciation for your clear and cogent observations through choppy seas. It is
          particularly helpful to me to have a sense of both broad direction and sector advantage."

Right after that, a very long-time client sent this to a potential client on my behalf:

          "Walter Deemer, considered by many of us the most solid of market technicians/strategists..."

And then [blush] someone at one of the very, very biggest institutional money managers told me:

          "We get tons of data... but there are very few people that can give us the seasoned insights that you do."

I was honored to be selected as the featured technical analyst in Dean LeBaron's recently-republished "Dean LeBaron's Treasury Of Investment Wisdom; 30 Great Investing Minds", joining such luminaries as John Bogle, Peter Lynch and George Soros as the chosen "guru" in their field. The book is available on Dean's web site; click here to go to my chapter.

I was interviewed recently by Jasmina Hasanhodzic, an MIT grad student as part of a project which seeks to introduce new quantitative approaches to technical analysis and highlight the ways in which technical analysis is used by some of its most experienced practitioners. Excerpts from the interview are included in a book co-authored by Jasmina and Andrew Lo titled "The Heretics of Finance: Interviews with Leading Practitioners of Technical Analysis" that was published by Bloomberg Press in January.

As 2003 began we were awaiting confirmation that the market had launched a new cyclical bull market and was not staging just another bear market rally, as we discussed in our January 3rd memo "The Market Should Go Up In January. (It Had Better!)" Even more unfortunately, we never got that confirmation in January, and we turned bearish at 922 in the S&P in our January 15th Daily Update -- ultimately targeting 785-790 in the S&P as our "longer-term downside objective". The S&P, in one of those "happy coincidences" that have dotted my 39-year career, rallied from an intraday low of 788.90 on March 12th; the next day, we issued what proved to be an especially timely memo,"Gor Blimey; It Looks Like A Bottom!" The March 12th low also made our memo of the preceding Friday, "We're Due For A Cyclical Bull Market!" an even happier "coincidence".

Site last updated: March 1

NOTE: If you run into ANY problems on this site, such as graphics not displaying correctly, links not working,etc., please let me know ASAP by e-mailing me at walter@walterdeemer.com