Weekly Reports

This Week's Update (For Clients Only - Requires Password)

NOTE: Clients receive these memos by e-mail before they are posted here.

Some Sample Weekly Reports From Yesteryear

What's In Our Weekly Reports -- And Why

Our weekly stock market reviews are designed to provide you, quickly and efficiently, with everything you need to know about the market's current position and future course. Our reports also cover groups and individual stocks, with specific recommendations of both.

You'll fine the following in each report:

  1. Five-Second Summary. The whole ball of wax -- summarized in three lines or less at the very beginning of the report.

  2. The Market Now. The position -- right now -- of the stock market as a whole.

  3. Leadership.Where it is -- and where it isn't.

  4. The Bottom Line. The whole report summarized in one paragraph.

  5. Relative strength tables on Fidelity's sector funds; strength ratings of actively managed groups, not S&P's passively managed ones. (Do they work? If you bought the top three funds in February, 1987, when we began publishing this work, then sold them when they slipped into the bottom 50%, or below the S&P 500, or below the money market rate of return, and reinvested the money in the top-ranked fund not already owned, your account would have gone up more than twice as much as the S&P itself. And you can play this game with real money. We are!)

    (A full explanation of how our Fidelity Sector Fund Switching program works can be found here)

  6. Top And Bottom ETF's. We rank the 80 biggest ETF's same way we do the Fidelity sector funds, and list the top and bottom five every week.

Some Weekly Reports From Yesteryear

The biggest market story of 2000 was the rise and fall of the big NASDAQ stocks. During the summer, we repeatedly warned that the NASDAQ rally was nothing more than "some sort of big rally failure", and that big NASDAQ stocks were the riskiest area in the again-bifurcated market. We started off back in March, though, by publishing one of our unique "think pieces" -- which I think is one of the best reports I've ever written. It was titled "Arrogance".

"Arrogance" - March 3, 2000
This special report compared the then-current New Economy mentality to the Nifty Fifty era of the early 1970's, and included some of our charts from that bygone era. It was issued just days before New Economy stocks felt the tug of gravity for the first time in a long while; the NASDAQ peaked on March 10, then plunged more than 35% in the next 2 1/2 months -- and has never regained those March heights.

"Leadership: Out With The Old -- But Where Is The New?" - June 30, 2000
"Each passing day makes it clearer and clearer thet the old leadership, the big technology stocks, are no longer leading the market."

"The Market Bifurcates Again" - August 18, 2000
Buy the "new leadership" -- interest-sensitive stocks, most drug stocks, and many big consumer growth stocks -- into weakness; sell the "new downside leadership" -- big NASDAQ stocks -- into strength.

"Summing Up Our Current Working Conclusions" - September 29, 2000
If the market does "crash" this October, we suspect it'll be the NASDAQ more than the whole "market"...

The extraordinary market decline in September 2001 and the subsequent testing process tried investors' souls as they had never been tried before. Here's what we had to say when our clients needed us the most:

"The Big Picture" - September 21, 2001
The expanded memo that we wrote on the bleakest day of a terribly bleak month on Wall Street.

"Major Themes Of 2002" - January 4, 2002
Putting everything into perspective as the new year began.

1) It's Not A Secular Bull Market Any More
2) The Stock Market Is Staging A Cyclical Recovery
3) Upside Potential In This Cyclical Recovery May Be Less Than Usual
4) Mid-Cap and Small-Cap Stocks Will Lead The Market
5) Big NASDAQ Stocks Remain The Big Problem Area



And, finally, from the archives: The extraordinary stock market advance of 1999 and 2000 inspired us to write a number of our uniquely insightful "think pieces" to put the advance into a proper long-term perspective. Some of them follow.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds -- A la 1999 - April 27, 1999
Priceline.com worth more than Delta, UAL and USAir? You gotta be kidding!

Small Stocks Vs. Big Stocks: A Real Long-Term Perspective - April 23, 1999
If you're only comparing them back to 1975, you're missing something...

The Story Of Baxter, U. S. Steel and John Maurice - April 9, 1999
What things were like at the height of the Nifty Fifty Era - and a man who pointed out that the Emperor was naked...

"The Wall Street Version Of A Classic Greek Tragedy" - March 12, 1999
Something's terribly, terribly wrong here...

"Deja Vu" - January 10, 1999
We saw a speculative frenzy like this before -- 30 years ago.

"Deja Vu II" - January 11, 1999
We saw a boom like the Internet boom before, too -- the early days of the PC boom.


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